On July 31, 2026, the China Commodity Development Report (2026) (the “Report”) was released in Beijing. Centered on systemic restructuring and high-quality development, the Report reviews new market features, pricing logic, and trends amid elevated global uncertainty, and offers forward-looking guidance on digital transformation, supply-chain resilience, and green development.

1. Market overview: a shift in pricing logic

The Report notes that in the first five months of 2026, China’s commodity market showed elevated prices, structural divergence, and greater volatility. Pricing logic is moving from traditional supply-demand drivers toward “risk pricing” shaped by geopolitical conflict and financial swings. With global uncertainty becoming the norm and domestic markets in a critical transition phase, growth policies, advanced manufacturing, and AI-related expansion support demand, while geopolitics and cross-border financial volatility continue to disrupt supply.

2. Market performance: clear category divergence

Monitoring data for May 2026 show about 42% of active products rising and 58% falling. The overall price center moved higher, but internal structure diverged:

  • Non-ferrous metals led gains, driven by new energy and computing infrastructure demand as well as tighter supply in places.
  • Energy and chemicals saw solid year-on-year chemical gains but a month-on-month pullback in May; energy indices eased as refined oil and natural gas prices retreated.
  • Ferrous metals showed a steady steel rebound, entering a low-level recovery path.
  • Agricultural products and minerals were generally softer; minerals stayed low amid slow recovery in property and traditional infrastructure.

Stronger May performers included lithium carbonate, refined tin, natural rubber, coke, and electrolytic copper. Products such as apples, gasoline, caustic soda, praseodymium-neodymium oxide, ethylene glycol, and methanol saw more volatile pullbacks.

3. Strategic guidance: four paths for restructuring

Facing a complex environment, the Report recommends:

  • System rebuilding: shift from scale expansion alone to deeper integration of markets, industries, and resources.
  • Greater resilience: diversify sourcing, use long-term contracts, and optimize logistics routes to strengthen supply-chain risk resistance.
  • Digital enablement: apply blockchain and IoT to improve transparency and traceability, reduce credit risk, and reinforce risk control.
  • Green transition: cultivate leading domestic distribution players, improve global networks, and innovate green finance and trade tools for high-quality growth.